The Dewar campaign poll

The Dewar campaign poll
by Aaron Wherry on Monday, February 13, 2012 12:22pm - 6 Comments
Paul Dewar’s campaign has released the results of an interactive voice response poll of 6,373 NDP members. The poll was conducted February 8 and 9, using the NDP membership list as of February 2. Respondents were provided with a list of candidates and asked for their first and second choices. For first choice, the results released for decided voters are as follows:

Thomas Mulcair 25.5%
Peggy Nash 16.8%
Paul Dewar 15.1%
Nathan Cullen 12.8%
Brian Topp 12.7%
Niki Ashton 9.5%
Martin Singh 4.1%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%

For second choice, the results released for decided voters are as follows:

Paul Dewar 21.2%
Peggy Nash 19.4%
Thomas Mulcair 16.7%
Nathan Cullen 14.4%
Brian Topp 12.4%
Niki Ashton 10.7%
Romeo Saganash 3.6%
Martin Singh 1.8%

In response, Raymond Guardia, campaign manager for Brian Topp, apparently sent the following note to his campaign staff today.

Earlier this morning, the Paul Dewar campaign released a poll that makes some claims about the state of the race.

Needless to say, we know from our own polling and canvassing that the findings don’t reflect what’s happening on the ground. In the past two weeks, our campaign has conducted live telephone interviews (not “robocalls”) with 7,500 confirmed voting members and 28% intend to vote for Brian Topp in the upcoming leadership race.

Why do we have such strong momentum? Because party members are responding very positively to Brian’s optimistic message about building a more equal Canada. They are looking for strong social democratic leadership that can win in Quebec, can win in Canada, and that can speak to Canadians fluently in both official languages. That candidate is Brian Topp.

Thank you again, for all of your hard work in this campaign. As we enter the final weeks of this campaign, I say to you: let’s stay focused, and let’s get the job done.

A few notes of my own on the Dewar poll:

Those numbers are, as noted, for decided voters. I’m told 29% of respondents were undecided on their first choice, while 25% were undecided on their second choice.

According to the Dewar campaign, ”the poll has been weighted to accurately reflect provincial membership numbers … Mr. Dewar’s raw vote support was higher, but that is not an accurate reflection of the race.” The campaign won’t be releasing regional breakdowns or numbers on whose support goes where on second choice.

The poll includes Mr. Saganash who has since dropped out. And the poll was conducted before the Quebec City debate (which was generally considered a key test for Mr. Dewar).