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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

BC NDP and Liberals tied prior to Clark win

Shortly before the vote was held on who would become the next leader of the BC Liberal Party, two polls were leaked to the Vancouver Sun. One was by Abingdon Research and the other was done by Léger Marketing. As they were conducted for the losing Kevin Falcon camp, their focus was on the danger posed by choosing eventual winner Christy Clark. But the polls still did have some interesting numbers for the provincial and federal campaigns in British Columbia.

In the Léger poll, the BC New Democrats led with 41%, followed by the BC Liberals at 37% and the BC Greens at 15%. The BC Conservatives stood at 5%. Interestingly, both pollsters did not prompt for the "BC Conservatives", only "Other". If respondents chose "Other", they were then prompted with the BC Conservatives, independents, and the Libertarian Party.

The BC New Democrats have their strength concentrated on Vancouver Island, as well as in Vancouver itself and in the northern suburbs. The BC Liberals, on the other hand, a stronger in the Interior, in the Valley, and in the southern suburbs of Vancouver. The Greens are stronger away from Vancouver, while the Conservatives had their best result in the Valley - Metro South region.

Abingdon Research had very similar results. While Léger had the two parties statistically tied, Abingdon put the BC Liberals and BC NDP at 38% each. The Greens followed with 14%, and the BC Conservatives stood at 6%.

Note that Abingdon Research's Chief Research Officer has a history with Angus-Reid and also did polling for the federal Conservatives in 2008, according to their website. I had not heard of Abingdon before this poll appeared, but as their results were within the MOE of Léger Marketing's I have no reason to consider these poll results anything other than reliable.

Like the Léger poll, Abingdon found the NDP performing best on Vancouver Island and in the Vancouver - Metro North region. They were tied with the BC Liberals in the Interior, while the Liberals hold a big lead in the Valley - Metro South region. The Greens were strongest on Vancouver Island while the Conservatives had their best result in the Interior.

Rather than do projections for each of these polls, I averaged them out and got 46 seats for the BC New Democrats, 38 for the BC Liberals, and one independent. That makes for a majority government for the BC New Democrats, though at this point they have no leader.

And that makes these polls little more than a look at what the situation was before the two leadership races. The BC Liberals have chosen Ms. Clark, while the BC New Democrats will make their choice in April. Ms. Clark has promised not to call a snap election at least until her chief opponent is chosen.

Abingdon also included some federal numbers in their poll. Not surprisingly, the Conservatives are well ahead at 44%, unchanged from their 2008 result.

The New Democrats stand at 24%, while the Liberals are at 17%. Both of these results are also very close to the last election.

Perhaps the most interesting result in these two polls was the breakdown of BC Liberal voters. According to Abingdon, 67% of BC Liberal voters support the federal Conservatives. Another 22% support the Liberals while 4% support the NDP and the Greens each.

Provincially, that would give 25% to the Conservatives, 8% to the Liberals, and about 2% apiece to the Greens and New Democrats. In other words, half of federal Conservative and Liberal support in British Columbia is found in the BC Liberal Party, while the BC New Democrats are shedding about 2/5ths of their support to parties other than the federal NDP.

UPDATE: I neglected to add Angus-Reid's latest BC provincial poll to the pile. It was taken between February 15 and 17, and included 811 panellists.

The result was 41% for the BC Liberals, 38% for the BC New Democrats, 11% for the BC Greens, and 4% for the BC Conservatives. Considering the standard margin of error, this is yet another poll showing the exact same close race around 40%.

Note that Angus-Reid also polled supporters of each party for who they thought would make a good choice as party leader. Among BC Liberal voters, Ms. Clark got 67%, predicting her leadership win. Among BC NDP voters, the leader is Mike Farnworth at 59%, followed by Adrian Dix at 45%, a gap similar to the one Angus-Reid found between Clark and Falcon.

username	name	partisan	mp	prov	location	tags	popularity
@TonyClement_MP	Tony Clement	tory	mp	on	Parry Sound--Muskoka	minister	12097
@kady	Kady O'Malley	other		on	ÜT: 45.431582,-75.6	journalist	9693
@pmharper	Stephen Harper	tory	mp	ab	Calgary Southwest	party_leader	5683
@DenisCoderre	Denis Coderre	liberal	mp	qc	Bourassa	critic	4594
@RosieBarton	Rosemary Barton	other			ÜT: 46.81,-71.21625	journalist	4410
@davidakin	David Akin	other		on	Ottawa, Ontario, can	journalist	2988
@M_Ignatieff	Michael Ignatieff	liberal	mp	on	Etobicoke--Lakeshore	party_leader	2899
@jacklayton	Jack Layton	ndp	mp	on	Toronto--Danforth	party_leader	2227
@acoyne	Andrew Coyne	other		on	Tehran		1659
@evansolomoncbc	Evan Solomon	other		on	Ottawa	journalist	1532
@pmoharper	Not Steve Harper	other			Ottawa	satire	1459
@liberal_party	Liberal Party	liberal			Canada	political_party	1266
@stephen_taylor	Stephen Taylor	tory		on	Ottawa, ON	blogger	1247
@bobraeMP	Bob Rae	liberal	mp	on	Toronto Centre	critic	1092
@SusanDelacourt	Susan Delacourt	other		bc	Ottawa, ON, Canada	journalist	1038
@MinJK	Jason Kenney	tory	mp	ab	Calgary Southeast	minister	1033
@impolitical	impolitical	liberal		on	Tehran	blogger	949
@kalimkassam	Kalim Kassam	other		on	Vancouver, Canada		784
@punditsguide	Pundits Guide	other			Ottawa, Ontario	blogger	781
@MPJamesMoore	James Moore	tory	mp	bc	Port Moody--Westwood	minister	777
@graciestyle	alise	other		bc	ÜT: 49.288307,-123.		770
@iancapstick	Ian Capstick	ndp		on	Ottawa		738
@KoryTeneycke	Kory Teneycke	tory		on	Ottawa, Ontario, Can		701
@cheddar_harper	Cheddar Harper	other		ab	Ottawa, Ontario, Can	satire	690
@CamilleLabchuk	Politico	green		on	iPhone: 43.661736,-7		652
@adamgoldenberg	Adam Goldenberg	liberal		bc	44.155512,-77.408746		646
@davidmurray4ndp	David Murray	ndp		bc	abbotsford	candidate	611
@ElizabethMay	Elizabeth May	green		ns	Sidney, British Colu	candidate,party_leader	566
@vijaysappani	Vijay Sappani	liberal		on	Toronto, Canada		562
@justinpjtrudeau	Justin Trudeau	liberal	mp	qc	Papineau		557
@GillesDuceppe	Gilles Duceppe	bloc	mp	qc	Laurier--Sainte-Mari	party_leader	557
@Carolyn_Bennett	Carolyn Bennett	liberal	mp	on	St. Paul's	critic	544
@PmoSoudas	Dimitri Soudas	tory		on	Ottawa	party_staffer	537
@wicary	Stephen Wicary	other		on	ÜT: 45.411045,-75.6	journalist	516
@brianlilley	Brian Lilley	other		on	Ottawa, Canada	journalist	507
@CBCPolitics	CBC Politics	other			Ottawa		493
@BlocQuebecois	Bloc Québécois	bloc		qc	Québec	political_party	458
@mpPeterKent	Peter Kent	tory	mp	on	Thornhill	minister	420
@LibArtsAndMinds	libartsandminds	liberal		on	GTA Ontario, Canada	blogger	418
@KevinGaudet	Kevin Gaudet	other		on	Toronto, Ontario, Ca		398
@laura_payton	Laura Payton	other		on	Ottawa	journalist	384
@ryhicks	Ryan Hicks	other		on	Ottawa	journalist	381
@oliviachow	Olivia Chow	ndp	mp	on	Trinity--Spadina		372

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Tuesday, March 1, 2011

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